AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc63b656fcb3d80cc37ba73293a0dd41cedfc6113824a7eabc0ea44d47f2e3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe44a…cd26backed Yes | 6c | 65,101$3,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 4,815$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.75 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…516cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,825$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 41c | 2,465$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,928$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,538$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…d0a5backed No | 76c | 1,416$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38b…380fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,153$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 13c | 967.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…a016backed Yes | 11c | 936.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 14c | 918.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 851.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 814.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 15c | 802.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 724$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 12c | 714.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…6242backed Yes | 3c | 580.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 5c | 576.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 2c | 558.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked Yes | 23c | 537.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 11c | 407$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…584fbacked Yes | 50c | 401.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 391.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 67c | 380$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 253.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 243.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Yes | 21c | 238.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1576backed No | 62c | 174.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…f883backed Yes | 36c | 162.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 68c | 145.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 143.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 8c | 136.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…9e4fbacked No | 30c | 119.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 34c | 102.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 94.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed Yes | 60c | 92.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 88.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 14c | 84.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70e…a75bbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 28c | 50.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed No | 64c | 37.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 80c | 21.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…0ac1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.