AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x277bc3c96450e77949fe41ea8d360044f4106833d6c89211cfa5c8ccfd8d0951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 61c | 4,947$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked No | 3c | 4,090$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.34 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 39c | 3,551$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,154.16 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 2,571$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.34 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 68c | 2,389$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,304$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.63 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 32c | 2,223$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 38c | 2,128$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.14 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,079$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…ec29backed Yes | 42c | 1,883$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 21c | 1,880$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.79 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 5c | 1,778$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.09 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 71c | 1,439$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 46c | 1,143$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed No | 60c | 1,131$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed No | 60c | 1,099$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +1,240.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 78c | 971.85$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 59c | 934.09$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 27c | 893.37$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +273.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 66c | 864.01$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.54 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 37c | 835.3$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…8933backed Yes | 80c | 796.49$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 768.46$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.77 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 38c | 661.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 53c | 654.4$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 77c | 604.87$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 40c | 589.77$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 64c | 548.74$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 8c | 452.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 38c | 437.66$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…b1c3backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes | 76c | 395.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 51c | 389.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 34c | 366.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 24c | 351.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.93 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…fef6backed Yes | 57c | 349.61$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed No | 75c | 340$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 51c | 310.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 306.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…94abbacked No | 15c | 291.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 69c | 287.58$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…32f4backed No | 35c | 286.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 72c | 284.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 283.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…b4d1backed No | 21c | 275.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +380.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…32a2backed Yes | 45c | 265.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…5a2ebacked Yes | 70c | 250$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed No | 45c | 234.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 41c | 221.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45bb…d2a7backed Yes | 47c | 214.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…016bbacked Yes | 5c | 213.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 43c | 213.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0c48backed Yes | 36c | 210.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 8c | 208.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 61c | 203.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7319backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…746abacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed No | 34c | 199.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38adbacked No | 50c | 199.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 32c | 195$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes | 60c | 193.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043e…1e20backed Yes | 52c | 191.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…1279backed Yes | 57c | 190$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…6ec5backed No | 7c | 169.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +368.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…97f0backed Yes | 19c | 168.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed No | 58c | 163.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…5c61backed No | 12c | 162.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +307.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…6a93backed No | 34c | 159.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 59c | 155.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb839…b8dbbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…438cbacked Yes | 56c | 136.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 63c | 135.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…9e21backed Yes | 57c | 130.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 54c | 128.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…03b6backed No | 15c | 128.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…5cd1backed Yes | 60c | 118.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3beb…f7b5backed No | 71c | 114.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…768cbacked No | 18c | 113.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…2079backed No | 40c | 113.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a40…30cebacked Yes | 44c | 112.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed Yes | 45c | 111.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked No | 40c | 109.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 48c | 107.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…c850backed Yes | 69c | 105.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 60c | 105.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…f298backed Yes | 52c | 105.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 45c | 101.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df8…4961backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…68d3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.