TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3751…7dfdbacked No61c4,947$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.29333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No3c4,090$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,973.342123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No39c3,551$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.163145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No5c2,571$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.3419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes68c2,389$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes12c2,304$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6314250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No32c2,223$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.571650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No38c2,128$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.148853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes80c2,079$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d5…ec29backed Yes42c1,883$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No21c1,880$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.796434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No5c1,778$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.092763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes71c1,439$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes1c1,379$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No46c1,143$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd198…8797backed No60c1,131$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbad…d056backed No60c1,099$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.49875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+1,240.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes78c971.85$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No59c934.09$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No27c893.37$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes66c864.01$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.542729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No37c835.3$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8dd…8933backed Yes80c796.49$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No38c768.46$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.779444.7%42 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No38c661.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.75850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked No53c654.4$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a19…073dbacked Yes77c604.87$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes40c589.77$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.421850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8da6…4f70backed No64c548.74$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes8c452.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.634415.9%7 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No38c437.66$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.612944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf950…b1c3backed Yes47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd832…67e0backed Yes69c400$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes76c395.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e2…36b0backed Yes51c389.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked No34c366.83$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.12850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No24c351.44$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.934551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff27…fef6backed Yes57c349.61$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed No75c340$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes51c310.01$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.882035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes33c306.66$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.37035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+186.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…94abbacked No15c291.36$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+111.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes69c287.58$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf24c…32f4backed No35c286.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No72c284.33$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.014641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes59c283.35$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9411124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x53c2…b4d1backed No21c275.57$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+380.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…32a2backed Yes45c265.46$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b6…5a2ebacked Yes70c250$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed No45c234.06$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf592…73cabacked Yes41c221.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45bb…d2a7backed Yes47c214.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1a…016bbacked Yes5c213.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed No43c213.14$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.411866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe739…0c48backed Yes36c210.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes8c208.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.472272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No61c203.53$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.433056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xecc4…7319backed Yes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3134…746abacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed No34c199.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1311717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-66.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No70c199.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38adbacked No50c199.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes32c195$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes60c193.32$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x043e…1e20backed Yes52c191.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9560…1279backed Yes57c190$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick53cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed No7c169.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+368.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…97f0backed Yes19c168.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x492f…bc51backed No58c163.28$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd365…5c61backed No12c162.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+307.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eaa…6a93backed No34c159.1$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes59c155.04$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.73944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed No58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb839…b8dbbacked Yes47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebd9…438cbacked Yes56c136.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No63c135.55$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9126…9e21backed Yes57c130.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes54c128.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edf…03b6backed No15c128.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+110.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…5cd1backed Yes60c118.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3beb…f7b5backed No71c114.78$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c2…768cbacked No18c113.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3368…2079backed No40c113.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a40…30cebacked Yes44c112.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…6800backed Yes45c111.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked No40c109.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.65812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed Yes48c107.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.61181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ea3…c850backed Yes69c105.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes60c105.19$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.96450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6c…f298backed Yes52c105.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81c…e454backed Yes45c101.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.782650%13 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df8…4961backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff1…7234backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb285…68d3backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.