AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc19466564cb36baeb7f8b2312dc0a877515d53e3bd16f08048f2020fd5e5d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,912$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…4143backed No | 47c | 3,562$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…62e2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 5c | 1,990$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,775$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 51c | 1,637$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.91 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 39c | 1,556$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 39c | 1,271$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.69 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…fb31backed Yes | 3c | 1,183$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,026$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 53c | 974$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.54 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 61c | 934$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 61c | 893$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 61c | 888$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 61c | 887$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d38…bdeabacked Yes | 2c | 856.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 61c | 837$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 39c | 801$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 61c | 766$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 39c | 759$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 61c | 744$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 53c | 710$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.99 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 595$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 28c | 550$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 26c | 535$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 72c | 375$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 68c | 349.66$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 50c | 346$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 42c | 276$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 74c | 269$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 74c | 266$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 14c | 264$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 42c | 262$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 42c | 243$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…0917backed Yes | 52c | 130.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…5827backed Yes | 39c | 98.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 49c | 88.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 60c | 79.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 77.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c0…8132backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 43c | 47.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…19d4backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…01abbacked Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…74bcbacked Yes | 72c | 20.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…3c54backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.