TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5d2b…f025

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$542Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$542.16
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.65
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$212.86
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$242.45
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.06
Will "Zootropolis 2" win Best Animated Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$36.3
Will Mary Bronstein - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You win Best Director at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$64.8
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$120.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+82.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$111
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$126.28
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$290.16
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.68
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$825.36
Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$152.49
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.9%+$167.67
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+334.8%+$244.86
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.57
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$619.32
Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$238.45
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$251.22
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+61.3%+$119.32
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$179.55
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.06
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+140%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$27.36
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$301.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.99
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketballbacked Paris Basketball · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+33.3%+$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$28.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$89.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Blackburn Beavers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$524.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.