Movies · resolved market
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x003e8bc7efdae552a8d83efe2272827b45005611e06fa59a402bb5055f4b9578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 78c | 965$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.3 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 76c | 958$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 75c | 798$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 22c | 761$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 76c | 703$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 76c | 633$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 24c | 622$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 22c | 558$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 75c | 495$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed No | 25c | 495$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 75c | 482$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 25c | 482$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 24c | 481$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 78c | 461$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 17c | 457$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 17c | 429$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 23c | 418$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes | 77c | 418$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 25c | 414$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 77c | 409$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 23c | 409$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 24c | 408$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 76c | 390$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 76c | 390$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked No | 24c | 390$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 25c | 384$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 24c | 376$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 23c | 374$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed Yes | 77c | 374$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 22c | 373$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 24c | 327$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed No | 24c | 320$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed Yes | 76c | 318$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 17c | 274$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 24c | 269$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed No | 22c | 268$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 17c | 255$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 24c | 208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 78c | 208$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 24c | 147$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 76c | 147$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 17c | 141$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 66c | 140.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 131.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 76c | 93.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?this page
- Will Yvonne De Mare - The Late Show with Stephen Colbert win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.