TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f61…c03e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Premier League, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.45
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$114.75
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.94
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$210
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.14
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$29.32
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+78.6%+$102.52
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$514Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+88.7%+$455.9
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$699.96
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+61.3%+$160.36
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.26
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$268.56
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$137.6
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$19.2
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.43
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$140.25
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$63.51
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$103.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+94.9%+$414.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$51.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$509.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$250.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.