Movies · resolved market
Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475d618ec0400594ae03be24a9f9b4d249e18627d1a3d9f6c2c5d47a138f73d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 38c | 2,207$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.42 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 61c | 1,410$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 69c | 1,160$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 32c | 679$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 47c | 669.4$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.88 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 52c | 655$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…befabacked Yes | 59c | 597.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 73c | 533$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 31c | 515$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 63c | 499$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.57 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 51c | 447.81$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 73c | 440$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 27c | 440$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 31c | 427$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.63 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 36c | 381.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.43 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 27c | 380$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 33c | 303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 67c | 303$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked No | 68c | 299$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 68c | 271$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 46c | 235$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 31c | 218$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 56c | 210.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 27c | 184.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed No | 73c | 166.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 43c | 160.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 49c | 160$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 27c | 153$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 54c | 149.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes | 68c | 127.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…4e28backed Yes | 26c | 115.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 68c | 109$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…a9a9backed Yes | 53c | 103.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 40c | 84.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 83.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 75.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…4b53backed No | 39c | 64.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…d310backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed No | 30c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 51.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d31fbacked Yes | 35c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 37.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked No | 76c | 34.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 80c | 32.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 68c | 26.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 24.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634b…b425backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 75c | 16.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.