Movies · resolved market
Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865b8afd4dd97b2e5b1794b85b91abcdeb5eddc4335e2c23f7fe8ed158308f35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,760 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 17c | 747.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 12c | 612$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 12c | 592$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 12c | 557$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 12c | 513$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 14c | 504$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 16c | 486$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 18c | 299.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 14c | 268$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 241.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 16c | 169$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 16c | 96.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…44afbacked Yes | 12c | 86.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked No | 77c | 33.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.