Movies · resolved market
Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81703b73047bd755018a23ece22784eb632df33a07c8c31d4c922d2f6b58a2ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,367 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 26c | 1,764$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 1,456$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.65 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 79c | 911$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 74c | 849.88$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 59c | 607$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 41c | 607$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 59c | 589$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 46c | 496$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ab…2e0fbacked Yes | 7c | 466$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 6cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 54c | 447$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked No | 20c | 414$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 41c | 405$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 13c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 21c | 396$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked No | 21c | 388$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 57c | 303$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 43c | 303$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 6c | 264.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 6c | 261.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 78c | 258$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 20c | 186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed No | 41c | 184$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 21c | 127$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…5fa0backed No | 28c | 101.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 99.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 99.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…0344backed No | 32c | 92.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 87.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 32c | 86.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 70c | 86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 54c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 79c | 61.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 73c | 60.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 71c | 58.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 38c | 53.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1c26backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…bef3backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c68…fd19backed No | 38c | 48.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 31c | 47.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…5871backed Yes | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…ed78backed Yes | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 42c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 70c | 28.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 74c | 23.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…2c86backed Yes | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 80c | 19.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 63c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 70c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.