Movies · resolved market
Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23891ef49a370bb69bd5640bb4821fd1484cc3964d3c8eadad63eb461e9cb18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,913 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 16c | 703$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 11c | 690$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 15c | 670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 42c | 585$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 15c | 443$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 15c | 428$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 9c | 408.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 6c | 334.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 58c | 295$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6412…2297backed No | 8c | 290.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 44c | 268$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 58c | 267$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 42c | 236$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 58c | 236$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 20c | 201$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7b…9cd5backed No | 20c | 184.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 79c | 180.27$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6290…2096backed No | 9c | 175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed No | 42c | 137$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 56c | 137$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 56c | 131$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.