Movies · resolved market
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db4784bc879e3376aa5665588821c2ed2731039861392526938dc1763fc66df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,377 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 42c | 1,299$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,093$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 77c | 871$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.57 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 58c | 816$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…78d7backed Yes | 9c | 752$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 16c | 746$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 68c | 649$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 619.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 38c | 503$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 25c | 434.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 399.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 32c | 343$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 63c | 319$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 37c | 319$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 58c | 310$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 32c | 306$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 297.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 59c | 288$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 41c | 288$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 62c | 268$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 62c | 235$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 48c | 213.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 36c | 210.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…7be2backed No | 68c | 206.54$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 22c | 199.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 193.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 17c | 169.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…2d97backed Yes | 12c | 164$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 161.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 67c | 156.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cd…43e2backed Yes | 76c | 126.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed No | 41c | 114.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…4e28backed Yes | 28c | 108.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 105.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked No | 25c | 103$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…624fbacked No | 59c | 102.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6079backed Yes | 17c | 90.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…0faabacked Yes | 74c | 88.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…33fabacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed Yes | 25c | 58.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…167fbacked Yes | 68c | 49.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 44.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…8108backed Yes | 56c | 35.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…5871backed Yes | 59c | 25.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54b…2cc7backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Kevin Hart attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Saoirse Ronan attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.