TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0f5c…91bf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
181
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$243.96
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+184.9%+$48.03
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$569.74
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.66
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+525%+$543.48
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$80.16
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$810.92
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$156.06
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$390.87
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$88
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.4
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$228.86
Will "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$276.72
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$47.03
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$65.83
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$60.32
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$150.72
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+92.3%+$492
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$226.2
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$38.22
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$236.8
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+100%+$171.5
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+270.4%+$97.82
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$68.85
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.5
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.86
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.58
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.02
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.82
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$182.16
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$238.16
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.28
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$308.72
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+271.8%+$827.52
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$124
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$89.9
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$106.6
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$237.16
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$131.6
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$236.07
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$343
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+270.4%+$294.19
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.52
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$109.62
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$145.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$68.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+233.3%+$44.8
All 23 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$81.44
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$266.76
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$222.18
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.88
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.09
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.2
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.2
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$316.98
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$116.89
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$579.87
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+169.6%+$505.2
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$275.04
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.66
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$120.62
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.55
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.84
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$111.97
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$171.99
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$85.26
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$368.48
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+29.5%+$16.84
All 21 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.5
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$963Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$489.95
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$564Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+80.1%+$451.5
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.5
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.5
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.38
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.17
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+160.8%+$344.69
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$74.67
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$39.78
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+455.5%+$1,052.85
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$203.58
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$59.85
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+53.8%+$301.7
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+104.1%+$189.72
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$493.2
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$53.82
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+300%+$347.25
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+432.4%+$366.29
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$76.44
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$459.9
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.09
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$188.86
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$922Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$275.54
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.54
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$188.79
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+706.5%+$416.1
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.59
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+502.4%+$747.26
Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$317.24
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+118.2%+$270.36
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$32.64
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.7%+$60.78
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$243.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.23
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$353.13
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$175.86
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.4
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$226.49
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$257.92
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+316.7%+$279.68
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$290.72
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$48.61
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$63.47
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+354.5%+$364.26
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+251.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+146.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.22
Will Watford FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$1,266.84
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+316.7%+$617.88
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+482.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$439.2
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+809.1%+$301.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+148.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.82
San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Torerosbacked San Francisco Dons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+397.5%+$443.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Spirit make it to the Blast Open Rotterdam Grand Final? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$751.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$302.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.