TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$793,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$772,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 411 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes71c30,690$21,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,9145745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked No9c23,513$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.81435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked No29c15,393$4,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,464.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-80.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3c…1b01backed No30c15,000$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c14,623$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.184769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No21c13,959$2,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,952.2712629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4afd…4d18backed No29c13,331$3,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,865.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No8c12,431$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.3619531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c9,514$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.643588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No11c8,321$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.265913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4171…b29bbacked No26c7,692$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes72c7,593$5,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.959832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Yes70c7,384$5,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.394645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No17c6,429$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.1413942.4%59 W · 80 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes72c6,163$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.134526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No17c5,622$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.0918929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x268d…4820backed No1c5,594$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed No28c4,300$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.821631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed Yes71c4,290$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.053551.4%18 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c82…800bbacked No4c3,933$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes11c3,920$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.8750130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No18c3,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes70c3,459$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.2120438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No16c3,337$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.5426138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x653b…c68ebacked No14c3,317$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.453834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0585…1de9backed No30c3,200$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No17c3,154$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.1636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No1c3,009$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.093215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84016638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee95…0625backed No15c2,991$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c2,957$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.131,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes72c2,778$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.833138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No15c2,758$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.0512525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No7c2,665$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.733717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacdc…32ebbacked No3c2,303$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked No9c2,224$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.345036%18 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed No10c2,219$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.92633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210a…4661backed No26c2,198$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.49333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b9…5b8ebacked No3c2,163$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No17c2,160$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.219449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa50e…159abacked No3c2,123$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c0…6a4fbacked No3c2,121$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No20c2,100$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41722227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd702…9694backed No28c2,032$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3e…b969backed No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714b…6c2fbacked No17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No13c1,919$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.737341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c1,900$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25319829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661f…e34abacked No4c1,763$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7490…6e4abacked No3c1,694$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c1,679$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.37135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00e1…0ed2backed No4c1,670$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes80c1,636$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.172560%15 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf757…db38backed No19c1,623$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.931118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x082e…0110backed No4c1,603$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes71c1,600$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4641735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes80c1,591$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.385060%30 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No16c1,549$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.015646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…d02cbacked No30c1,494$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fac…e32bbacked No4c1,465$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c1,460$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc10…a082backed No19c1,427$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed No16c1,412$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.423327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No19c1,400$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25910234.3%35 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No19c1,390$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.111537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x396c…6ab0backed No3c1,386$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c1,348$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.02721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…ecadbacked No26c1,317$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.432733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8c7…0e95backed No15c1,310$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.853925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4df…e4f3backed No3c1,295$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-75.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8c…18abbacked No30c1,285$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf434…7552backed No3c1,279$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41de…ca47backed No4c1,248$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd923…ef6fbacked No3c1,183$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbf…9941backed No4c1,176$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes78c1,163$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.5132243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x385a…6933backed No9c1,154$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4823…9448backed No26c1,153$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.782931%9 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb1…9f67backed No3c1,091$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fee…3e12backed No3c1,089$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7cd…58bcbacked No3c1,081$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bb…1c60backed No26c1,013$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c1,010$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.544625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505123.5%12 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No20c1,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011944.5%53 W · 66 L-17.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.1619648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31045843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e9…cb9cbacked No17c999.79$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.96296.9%2 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3d…222fbacked No4c971$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No18c957.53$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.5342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd044…2e1bbacked No4c916$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1de2…9e23backed No11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005827.6%16 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8507…3c31backed No3c903$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371b…976dbacked No3c902$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No5c901.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.731245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa167…5380backed No4c900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No16c900$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1448530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f9…b949backed No3c892$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.