TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$446,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb881…58fabacked Yes16c10,244$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick17cpaid+107.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed Yes4c7,235$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes3c6,563$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.445913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cb…b7cfbacked Yes5c6,078$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.581741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0a…1211backed Yes2c5,047$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes10c4,681$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c4,457$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.863717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10cb…8f74backed Yes11c4,402$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5383…2294backed Yes4c4,195$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653b…c68ebacked Yes3c4,151$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1093834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes2c4,148$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.243622.2%8 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes7c3,993$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c3,937$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.563103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425f…5493backed Yes5c3,856$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c3,578$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.631245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x423a…cc34backed Yes5c3,475$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.631520%3 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+268.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes6c3,300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.33020%6 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes4c3,290$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.389116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7062…dccbbacked Yes3c3,049$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,868$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.347135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c2,734$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ff…8db1backed Yes3c2,635$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4372…6a96backed Yes6c2,620$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.221414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521d…8482backed Yes4c2,510$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes4c2,480$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9910327.2%28 W · 75 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5f…b3e4backed Yes2c2,466$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79f…b14ebacked Yes4c2,392$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+49.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dee…7f44backed Yes4c2,355$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes3c2,308$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1115523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0df2…676abacked Yes4c2,154$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d67…3cc5backed Yes4c2,144$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba18…bb1cbacked Yes4c2,073$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da0…8657backed Yes8c2,010$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0013…f0c2backed Yes8c1,970$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes3c1,950$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.059410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…33ebbacked Yes4c1,947$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbf…0208backed Yes4c1,845$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…5159backed Yes5c1,823$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e32…3afcbacked Yes5c1,815$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.98812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1423…1fdcbacked Yes5c1,810$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fb…4a7cbacked Yes2c1,761$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…0112backed Yes4c1,731$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d7…008dbacked Yes3c1,683$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fdd…9592backed Yes2c1,671$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef0…f367backed Yes2c1,669$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91be…a9c1backed Yes2c1,631$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c1,625$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.491995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ada…127cbacked Yes4c1,578$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e0…56d2backed Yes4c1,575$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes1c1,535$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7612525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4151…596cbacked Yes4c1,534$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1caf…abb2backed Yes4c1,519$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a0f…bae3backed Yes5c1,471$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf4…fe79backed Yes4c1,420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7d…cbe3backed Yes4c1,369$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552065%13 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc74c…7c64backed Yes2c1,368$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bd…71a8backed Yes4c1,362$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,305$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.464625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c1,291$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.394136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7211…7a87backed Yes4c1,253$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363e…92f8backed Yes3c1,251$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes4c1,249$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2312918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefa8…56d0backed Yes4c1,211$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…7367backed Yes7c1,205$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb23a…d16fbacked Yes2c1,195$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c38…2000backed Yes2c1,194$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c94…e7bdbacked Yes5c1,150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5670…2b9cbacked Yes5c1,144$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555939%23 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3930…f627backed Yes5c1,131$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fb…2c6cbacked Yes5c1,125$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes2c1,102$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2416537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5472…6b9ebacked Yes5c1,099$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d63…ed55backed Yes3c1,087$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2074…fe64backed Yes4c1,072$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1256…d7c0backed Yes4c1,046$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f0…5bc8backed Yes5c1,023$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa8…84c1backed Yes2c1,023$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.78812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.432352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0384…27fbbacked Yes3c999.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313622.2%8 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes3c939.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1515324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca4…fda6backed Yes6c928.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.261833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+182.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c919.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.315071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fd…5086backed Yes3c905.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ab…300abacked Yes4c900$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4e…b62bbacked Yes5c854.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c823.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.750130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes2c799.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd280…82b3backed Yes3c792.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.371450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5291…5b15backed Yes3c766.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d0…34b3backed Yes4c727.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c725$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.344928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c95…e1a4backed Yes2c700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd334…ad35backed Yes3c686.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0879…2f3fbacked Yes4c686.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27a3…f310backed Yes2c680.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda24…caf7backed Yes8c647.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a8…b1c9backed Yes5c619$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.