Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d46533ebea73a8a1d7284feded91f694b8bd564c14d33307904879290a82a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,602 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 1c | 15,007$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 14,569$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,519$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 1c | 8,094$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 1c | 7,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,076$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,561$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 1c | 5,405$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,850$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…89b6backed Yes | 1c | 4,561$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed Yes | 1c | 4,337$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…36abbacked Yes | 1c | 4,260$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,891$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,631$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,630$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…cc34backed Yes | 3c | 3,339$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +268.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 3,194$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2a52backed Yes | 2c | 3,178$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…f90ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,935$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…0053backed Yes | 1c | 2,593$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,437$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,394$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,267$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 1c | 2,208$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…90e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,107$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…e874backed Yes | 3c | 2,001$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,952$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 1c | 1,827$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes | 1c | 1,804$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f2…f98ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,744$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…56d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,658$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,601$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…b626backed Yes | 3c | 1,522$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,398$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…fe64backed Yes | 3c | 1,377$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a9…1f5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,238$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3d…8c7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,164$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…30c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,156$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…165fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 1c | 947.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…e451backed Yes | 1c | 943.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…8d20backed Yes | 2c | 900.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…bbd3backed Yes | 6c | 804.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 691.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a88…3702backed Yes | 2c | 679.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 558.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 12, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 13, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 14, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 15, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 16, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 17, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.