TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$317,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes2c15,242$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.032810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed Yes3c11,029$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001030%3 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f09cbacked Yes2c9,000$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.99540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+374.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Yes14c6,973$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…1867backed Yes3c6,784$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4372…6a96backed Yes4c6,544$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.881414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes2c4,800$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83020%6 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x362f…3e81backed Yes2c4,293$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes1c4,232$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7312525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb881…58fabacked Yes8c3,930$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick17cpaid+107.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c3,829$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.985071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes2c3,200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.837610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,189$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.157135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0442…4d21backed Yes5c2,999$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c2,996$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.173717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes2c2,955$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.392725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e2…50e2backed Yes4c2,894$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c2,410$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.273103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5383…2294backed Yes3c2,372$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.381330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c66…8c3ebacked Yes4c2,338$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e32…3afcbacked Yes3c2,326$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4e…cf40backed Yes4c2,295$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c2,289$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.171245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9018…0ae5backed Yes4c2,282$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes3c2,202$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c91…79e2backed Yes2c2,200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501952.6%10 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+92.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5a37…91c9backed Yes4c2,153$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes2c2,139$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.273622.2%8 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…d1aebacked Yes4c2,029$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c1,972$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf015…4725backed Yes3c1,920$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes2c1,896$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes2c1,823$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.425913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda68…fbc8backed Yes3c1,800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff5…ce12backed Yes4c1,779$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes6c1,755$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+79.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc0…5124backed Yes4c1,732$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea0…6bddbacked Yes4c1,724$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d6…876fbacked Yes4c1,654$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes1c1,597$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5215523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0d6…36babacked Yes4c1,591$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,560$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.881,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…bbd3backed Yes6c1,545$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5ce…76c7backed Yes4c1,523$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e0…99b6backed Yes2c1,497$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e7…ae27backed Yes2c1,492$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…7367backed Yes3c1,451$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes2c1,430$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2a…165fbacked Yes4c1,425$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc680…39eabacked Yes4c1,378$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…396abacked Yes4c1,287$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes3c1,283$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4312325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf458…893bbacked Yes2c1,265$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c14…5269backed Yes2c1,247$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c1,224$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7524712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d68…9a56backed Yes2c1,204$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a6c…4a5fbacked Yes2c1,183$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ad…7ec0backed Yes2c1,083$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,017$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.164625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7c…6520backed Yes4c1,010$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2747…8d20backed Yes4c1,009$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.22352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27db…af68backed Yes3c1,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.187428.4%21 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1328734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes3c999.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x423a…cc34backed Yes4c951.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31520%3 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+268.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd78e…7e72backed Yes2c873.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-73%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8177…51d8backed Yes4c830$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c821.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.384136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baa…647abacked Yes2c785.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+148.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes2c776.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144337.2%16 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ec…d1dcbacked Yes2c766.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8193…a0d7backed Yes3c739.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes4c695$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5150130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes2c641.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9815324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c615.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.411995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes2c602.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.075022%11 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55fd…5086backed Yes3c574.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9d…c67cbacked Yes3c529.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa58…937bbacked Yes2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes3c499.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051625%4 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c494.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993a…7a3fbacked Yes4c462$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes3c457.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x376e…d654backed Yes3c450$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3281…3bd5backed Yes4c438$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c9…e012backed Yes4c336$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7703…eed9backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae4…955abacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No39c280.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3230649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xda24…caf7backed Yes4c277.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c245.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1229855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.511250%56 W · 56 L+25.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+87.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked No39c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.751729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.