TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,951 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd245…2318backed Yes0c9,677$39 inLost-$39.354822.9%11 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c7,885$28 inLost-$28.173103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes0c5,007$16 inLost-$16.02296.9%2 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa923…52ddbacked Yes1c5,004$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa349…a150backed Yes1c4,088$48 inLost-$483923.1%9 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3332…89b6backed Yes1c3,949$46 inLost-$46.483013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,707$24 inLost-$23.875071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,550$11 inLost-$10.651,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes1c3,228$47 inLost-$47.268719.5%17 W · 70 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes0c3,156$12 inLost-$121488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc98…a497backed Yes0c3,151$13 inLost-$13.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c3,125$10 inLost-$10.252742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes1c3,007$19 inLost-$18.8212525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb138…36abbacked Yes2c2,752$48 inLost-$47.96100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2a52backed Yes2c2,619$48 inLost-$483923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes1c2,462$18 inLost-$18.215913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,326$12 inLost-$12.197135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes1c2,275$20 inLost-$20.435626.8%15 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,033$12 inLost-$12.471245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e32…3afcbacked Yes1c2,008$20 inLost-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,950$11 inLost-$11.362282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x924a…42e1backed Yes1c1,659$15 inLost-$14.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe787…43c3backed Yes1c1,460$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes1c1,091$10 inLost-$10.52718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes1c1,050$10 inLost-$10.059410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes1c999.95$12 inLost-$128033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.