Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58eaf9c57a43fd5380ffbf93c0be568ba1d4e435eb219c982634b2d5be2e651b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,643$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,509$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,945$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 6,148$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 1c | 6,020$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,021$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…7914backed Yes | 1c | 4,101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,871$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,792$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,579$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…d1aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,248$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,236$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…f90ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,164$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,147$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,999$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 1c | 2,911$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,532$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,304$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,018$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 1,946$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 1,919$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…35a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,903$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…132fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…f48dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,742$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…b43cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,726$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fa…8ffbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,634$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,588$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 1c | 1,519$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…c822backed Yes | 2c | 1,506$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca4…fda6backed Yes | 2c | 1,504$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…9ab9backed Yes | 2c | 1,501$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…2c67backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…4dd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,472$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,463$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…9914backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…becbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,395$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 1c | 1,385$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 1c | 1,367$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a71bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,320$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…baa2backed Yes | 2c | 1,237$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…6bddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…2ba5backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…79f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…bb00backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…423ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7e88backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…8289backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…cc34backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +268.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 998$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…7079backed Yes | 2c | 998$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…e540backed Yes | 2c | 990$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…8d20backed Yes | 2c | 974.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc10…82dabacked Yes | 2c | 944$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…5a7bbacked Yes | 2c | 917$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…f627backed Yes | 2c | 916$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…6c19backed Yes | 1c | 823.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ed…24d6backed Yes | 2c | 776$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 12, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 13, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 14, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 15, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 16, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 17, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.