TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f7c…cb5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst Music at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.28
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+525%+$622.21
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,524.77
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.69
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$613.95
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$380.04
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.05
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$838Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+445.2%+$3,731.01
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,663Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,663.03
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.49
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$22.21
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.15
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$32.65
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+84.2%+$135.94
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+42%+$493.12
Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,255.25
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,143Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$1,737.07
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,330Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$1,449.38
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$124.64
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10,679Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,678.95
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$5,015Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,015.27
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$432
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,745Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+36.8%+$642.97
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,040Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$304.21
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$188.65
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$698Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+115.9%+$808.42
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,807Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$492.51
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,348Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+84.1%+$3,656.38
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13,664Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$6,094.55
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$280
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,948Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.5%+$1,587.92
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75%+$286.04
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.43
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.2
Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.04
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$992.56
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.71
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$867Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$866.67
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+57%+$253.99
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$4,710Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,709.59
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US strikes Iraq by March 31backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$431.54
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$190.93
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$796Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$224.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.