TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c6,592$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.8354934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4596…bbe8backed Yes16c6,195$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes32c5,358$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.983336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…73d7backed No75c4,930$3,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.525100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes0c4,826$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.437638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No78c3,642$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.613630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7455…eb1ebacked Yes1c3,093$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d59…2589backed Yes30c3,019$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…26bfbacked Yes33c2,704$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes1c2,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.418530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes3c2,018$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5423225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96e…87ecbacked Yes26c1,982$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No78c1,771$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.247761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed7e…2fe2backed Yes29c1,365$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.811338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x836c…0a67backed Yes19c1,327$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No69c1,184$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.853743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes20c1,158$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.511369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked No75c1,100$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba3…2328backed Yes1c913.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6988…f556backed Yes31c780$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cc…571dbacked No77c640$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.26100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaffd…b072backed No75c637$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.25650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked Yes31c633$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+230%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No69c633$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes25c561$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.25540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No64c525.33$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3716746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Yes25c511$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes20c484.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.583925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c458.06$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.431,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c456.84$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248a…12abbacked Yes30c450$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce5…64cabacked Yes33c448.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed No75c435$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74fd…03b6backed No74c431.15$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.161947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d8…616bbacked Yes19c426.24$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No66c400$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13810652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No72c396.56$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1107570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes34c335.74$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.152441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes25c320$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a3…8992backed Yes32c313.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfb5…6ebcbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bc…9cbcbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f9…8c0ebacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05bd…82cabacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c1…ef0fbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d8b…7ea4backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb2…bf40backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a2…0633backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ec…3133backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3957…e7afbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6802…b4f6backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No75c280$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x353e…a3b9backed Yes15c273.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c237.5$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No70c232.31$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6813225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8eb…55c4backed Yes27c218.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ba…9918backed Yes34c215$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…3768backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc31a…94f7backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No65c199$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9615446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes15c198.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes24c184.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.713040%12 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece1…aaa0backed Yes32c173.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…9544backed Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df3…a57abacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc24…bb49backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc1…788ebacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e30…76e9backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe532…f300backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…8c4bbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6c…cb66backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f4…ecb5backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0337…9b9cbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3393…d63ebacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…9853backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa3…ebe7backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97b…13c6backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d8…654cbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864f…e1cabacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd9a…74a1backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…a6cdbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2186…6001backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96d…edaabacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c6…9ba1backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3049…721abacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…11fdbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7089…7351backed Yes25c149$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes23c146.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6915650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No65c144.92$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.724175.6%31 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda7d…2ecdbacked Yes35c144.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes17c130.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2116343.6%71 W · 92 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde81…7915backed No66c127$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c123$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.821,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes32c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.62240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee4…d6c3backed No75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4703…27bebacked Yes24c110.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4190%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.