TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$211,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24c8…23e1backed No3c5,019$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5723225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f7…84a5backed Yes79c4,336$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cc…571dbacked Yes77c3,390$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.76100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No26c3,141$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.623630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No1c2,890$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8918530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes71c2,834$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.243336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No1c2,655$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.857638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No15c2,602$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No23c2,168$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.393336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked No25c2,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes73c1,988$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.231369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No23c1,982$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1445723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c2…1be5backed Yes70c1,292$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes62c1,240$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.0514240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked No27c1,084$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.68100%0 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked No23c999.58$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.581050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed Yes65c974$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc724…3a19backed No19c930$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.91723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745c…15fcbacked Yes68c882.35$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.35580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+195.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes70c845.96$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d6…4e69backed No6c809.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a1…dad2backed No20c794.97$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.991520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No35c747$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…bd84backed No35c722$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked No22c720$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.271952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes76c709.91$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.797761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No12c643.11$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.867443.2%32 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdb…a2c4backed Yes70c600$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes75c598.7$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.041241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes64c593.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8415650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbef4…0c66backed No25c576.69$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No25c518.19$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.746330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248a…12abbacked No31c450$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13980%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No30c437$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+86.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe759…e7cabacked Yes73c432.89$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.216759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed No30c428$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No30c427$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed No18c422.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No18c412.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.943925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes75c399.99$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024560%27 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…9030backed No15c392.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes65c315.72$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8216746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed No15c307.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.163040%12 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes66c307.58$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.586835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aaf…9512backed No19c302.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x372a…f22abacked Yes77c300.49$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.11580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed No24c280$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…f272backed No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…859cbacked No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee5…3ccabacked No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…472bbacked No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x398f…f28ebacked No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b7…5974backed No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe565…a691backed No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7729…c6cabacked No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3019…12e6backed No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b0…2c20backed No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x654f…8d08backed No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe730…2a3abacked No36c277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes75c275.42$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8510844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No37c265$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.052634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e42…e73bbacked No36c261$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e9…5b91backed No22c255$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1110%0 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf26f…e091backed Yes68c251.62$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd577…fdf9backed Yes74c244.65$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.911172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+57.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c78…6c85backed Yes74c229.5$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No31c228$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.684650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes69c228$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.684362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x163a…6388backed Yes79c218.72$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3535…75b2backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+331.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…3768backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc31a…94f7backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4703…27bebacked No23c199.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4690%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes69c169.62$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.42977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed No15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90dd…727cbacked No28c156.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde55…5909backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f07…b641backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…bd45backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad5…6b66backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…0869backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ad…c15bbacked Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe019…a827backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…a550backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4828…b073backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7b…36a6backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9c…2b98backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f1…8094backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4aa…0bd1backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf76…c3a4backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80aa…8d02backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0908…aa36backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec1…ebb8backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f7…da20backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x569d…df4fbacked Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d9…6521backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10a…1c54backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…81c5backed Yes64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e8…cc8cbacked Yes64c153$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.