TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x00c2…1be5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+61.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.04
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.36
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$138.61
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$197.28
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$205.39
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$211.14
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.5
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$892.79
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$300.84
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$229.9
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+354.5%+$749.58
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,070Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.9%+$319.7
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.35 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$121.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.98
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$390.96
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.73
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.96
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$573.54
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$150.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$202.8
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+42.9%+$155.4
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+459.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+332.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$315.52
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Grambling State Tigersbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+614.3%+$92.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+65.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$387Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$109.12
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$299.06
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$136.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Partizan vs. BC Dubaibacked Partizan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$680.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$73.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chris Gober be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$52.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$38.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.