Music · resolved market
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7454e19b073bb973364e504c0c03a32449d467665756d4c83d1cbe1a401cdd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 0c | 53,747$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…7b24backed Yes | 3c | 7,369$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,165.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,083.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 31c | 6,704$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 77c | 4,250$3,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 62c | 2,580$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.09 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 75c | 1,964$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.32 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 52c | 1,919$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 79c | 1,625$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed Yes | 26c | 1,432$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 1,421$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.26 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 63c | 1,391$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…fa72backed No | 38c | 1,310$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…c36fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,281$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…ef0fbacked No | 6c | 1,263$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 76c | 1,111$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 6c | 1,091$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,057$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 74c | 966$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 76c | 952$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 37c | 893$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 66c | 806.45$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed No | 74c | 801$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 76c | 781$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 78c | 720$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 26c | 677$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 17c | 641.23$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 74c | 616$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 3c | 563.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +897.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 24c | 549$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 19c | 547.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 26c | 542$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 24c | 532$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 57c | 515$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 17c | 508.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 26c | 506$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 24c | 495$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 37c | 468$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1e0fbacked Yes | 21c | 457.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 74c | 410$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 74c | 407$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 24c | 403$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 50c | 366.95$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 74c | 356$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 43c | 320$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 57c | 320$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…34debacked No | 4c | 289.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 76c | 261$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 43c | 260$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 43c | 255$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 243.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 76c | 234$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 26c | 204$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 24c | 201$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed No | 38c | 182.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed Yes | 26c | 174$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 12c | 166.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…13c6backed Yes | 70c | 143.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 26c | 142$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…7b2abacked No | 57c | 88.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 70c | 78.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 32c | 63.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…8b22backed No | 25c | 60.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…c3debacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 37c | 57.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 74c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 37c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…0ae4backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 69c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 69cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 68c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1c…784ebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?this page
- Will Lady Gaga win 0 Grammys?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 1 Grammy?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?No won
- Will Lady Gaga win 4 Grammys?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.