TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x68ba…0e6a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst Music at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick56cpaid+65.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$273.36
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.35
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$93.96
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$16.06
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+104.1%+$405.45
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+72.4%+$116.34
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+85.2%+$423.35
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+117.4%+$185.22
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+138.1%+$172.26
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+103.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.24
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$192
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.06
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$252
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$473.44
Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+104.1%+$168.81
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$103.05
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$161.16
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+119.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+248.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Viking FK win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$292
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+104.1%+$284.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$70.51
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$180.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$362.88
Watford FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$289.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$522.04
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$270.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$504.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Partizan vs. BC Dubaibacked Partizan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+525%+$698.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+29.7%+$8.93
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.