AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa07bea6d4acf9bead262159bb093c3af115ba8afa7753c64b59bfd202b1e9e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 58c | 2,839$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.62 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 49c | 2,011$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 66c | 1,199$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 52c | 1,090$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 43c | 1,049$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 42c | 978$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 51c | 976$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 42c | 974$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 37c | 942$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No | 51c | 935$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 45c | 931.22$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.93 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 42c | 930$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 51c | 928$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 63c | 916$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 55c | 830$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 49c | 828$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 48c | 817.12$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.23 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 73c | 743$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 73c | 729$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 27c | 713$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 48c | 675$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 34c | 667$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 68c | 654$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 32c | 654$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 53c | 649$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 47c | 649$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.97 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 36c | 631$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 27c | 586$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 64c | 583$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 53c | 565$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.45 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 47c | 565$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 48c | 545$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 73c | 543$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 39c | 516$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 44c | 496$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 38c | 495$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 60c | 494$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 45c | 493$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes | 36c | 493$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 62c | 448$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 61c | 447$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 62c | 436$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 40c | 426$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 45c | 420$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 44c | 419$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 36c | 416$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 64c | 416$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 48c | 415$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 45c | 410$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 44c | 389$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 56c | 364$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 64c | 338$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 56c | 335$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 44c | 335$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 55c | 330$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 36c | 326$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 64c | 326$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 56c | 324$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 44c | 324$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 54c | 319.13$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 53c | 316.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 54c | 303.95$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 73c | 298$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 27c | 298$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 65c | 296$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 64c | 293$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…ae05backed Yes | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…cc4dbacked No | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 49c | 264$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes | 36c | 258$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 64c | 258$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 64c | 257$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 36c | 257$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 51c | 241$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 51c | 214$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 68c | 196.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked Yes | 42c | 196$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked Yes | 49c | 191$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 59c | 184$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 55c | 163$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 64c | 157$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 27c | 157$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed No | 52c | 156$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 35c | 153$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +120%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 27c | 135$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 56c | 132$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 52c | 118.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 29c | 117.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…e888backed Yes | 31c | 114.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 60c | 109.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 65c | 87.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 58c | 86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 58c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 48c | 74.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.