AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf838a80556d6b26ee4d1522abc717ffb2b015e909fc699f003561fb4d6589194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 54c | 3,627$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b69…d36fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,597$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +372.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 14c | 1,573$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 14c | 1,423$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 14c | 1,312$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 15c | 1,222$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 14c | 827$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 11c | 753$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 17c | 708$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 13c | 663$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 13c | 660$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 13c | 658$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf852…1665backed Yes | 18c | 618.34$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +452.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed Yes | 13c | 499$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 16c | 477$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ee…3f15backed Yes | 26c | 444.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +282.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 16c | 389$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…800bbacked Yes | 6c | 374$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 15c | 371$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes | 13c | 355$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 80c | 286$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 78c | 279$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 22c | 279$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 15c | 267$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…4b52backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +366.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 14c | 218$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 181.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 14c | 172$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 14c | 162$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…54cabacked Yes | 63c | 159.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 14c | 147$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 17c | 73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 37cpaid | +124%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…e488backed Yes | 35c | 57.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 43c | 48.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked No | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 69c | 20.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.