AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1e51795031951bfe334851dccf453745773c46fb6b00e6bc9cc729ba2ace4b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 69c | 2,297$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.68 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 30c | 1,880$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.65 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 17c | 1,363$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…54cabacked Yes | 42c | 939.06$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.54 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 15c | 749$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 21c | 645$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 79c | 645$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 41c | 615$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 17c | 545$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 18c | 505$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 43c | 494.78$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.52 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 17c | 493$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.19 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 17c | 402$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 17c | 390$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 59c | 376$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 17c | 319$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 43c | 302$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed No | 57c | 302$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 52c | 295.45$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.06 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 53c | 244.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 18c | 244$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 59c | 239$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 17c | 203$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 17c | 167$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 19c | 147$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 17c | 144$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…e888backed Yes | 28c | 123.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 69c | 78.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 69.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 73c | 47.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 40c | 44.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf25…dadebacked Yes | 63c | 42.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 31c | 33.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 35c | 31.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 61c | 24.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 75c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.