AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892a8e051d0085acb73d42060af807ebbf09d27ed842d2444be53234f917e925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 10c | 1,409$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 10c | 1,145$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 10c | 1,081$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 14c | 901$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 19c | 840$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 15c | 668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 12c | 651.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 75c | 576$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +112%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 25c | 576$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 10c | 554$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 29c | 540.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 7c | 527.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 10c | 527$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 10c | 506$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 10c | 496$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 10c | 485$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 10c | 467$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 79c | 458.5$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 10c | 445$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 14c | 441$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 10c | 422$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 14c | 356$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed No | 10c | 345$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 10c | 341$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 10c | 329$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 10c | 322$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 6c | 301.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 10c | 288$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 19c | 221$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 5c | 184.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…1354backed Yes | 79c | 127.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…b1c3backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 73c | 73.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 75c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.