TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe8d5…1cae

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.87
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.2
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.92
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$881Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$463.46
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.03
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.75
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.5
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.62
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+276.1%+$1,000.63
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.01
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$429.44
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.37
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$132.3
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$31.62
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$13.16
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+108.3%+$294.84
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$101.12
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+42.9%+$411.3
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+35.1%+$111.28
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+55%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$281.82
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$61.2
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$456.94
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+150%+$618.6
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$37.06
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.64
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.02
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.2
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$654Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+40.8%+$267.09
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$206.78
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$127.3
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$222.08
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$533.62
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$165.06
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+56.3%+$38.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$259.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$1,180.14
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.28
Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$264
Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.21
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.92
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$279.3
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$186.5
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$455.11
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+63.9%+$485.55
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$177.48
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.48
Canada recession before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$69.02
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$540.94
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$47.04
Will Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$762Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$311.17
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.25
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.31
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+28.2%+$48.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-60.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ryan Gosling attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.03
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.68
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.8
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$146.89
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.06
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$117.75
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+81.8%+$126.45
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+398.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Charleston Cougars vs. Campbell Fighting Camelsbacked Charleston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$310.13
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. South Dakota Coyotesbacked South Carolina State Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$28.05
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$754.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+112.8%+$439.37
Will Qarabağ advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$81.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$34.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+122.2%+$146.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dominican Republic advance to the Knockout Stages of the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$58.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$148.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$42.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$49.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$87.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$170.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffsbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$158.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$647.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.