TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c804.22$16 inLost-$16.061227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes16c779$125 inLost-$124.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes39c656$256 inLost-$255.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked No61c610$372 inWon+$237.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+398.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes10c557.23$53 inLost-$53.1514528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c372$27 inLost-$271,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817f…bf28backed No75c164.32$123 inWon+$40.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No77c97.09$75 inWon+$22.024266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c89.64$31 inLost-$30.7333618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes23c80.26$19 inLost-$18.672222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Yes24c76.56$19 inLost-$18.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes40c50.48$20 inLost-$202615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes45c50$23 inLost-$22.552839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd581…bd3bbacked No60c48.46$29 inWon+$19.46933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked No61c46$28 inWon+$17.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost-$10.796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No61c37$23 inWon+$14.433735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No71c20.98$15 inWon+$5.991392.3%12 W · 1 L+5.4wins+0.42per pick51cpaid+187.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x010f…7730backed No62c20$12 inWon+$7.66100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x48dc…0575backed No70c17.14$12 inWon+$5.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.