Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6884413d986dbd0301055804095a363f5199d863deb81d9f8162dfa8f6af3774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes | 8c | 2,318$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,827$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,544$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 1,152$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 954.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 18c | 900$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 14c | 651.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 36c | 580$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 521.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 506.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…5d91backed Yes | 3c | 502.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…7467backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 32c | 416$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 68c | 386$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 74c | 376.48$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 64c | 372$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 32c | 370.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed No | 64c | 268$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 35c | 248.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…5e12backed Yes | 13c | 240.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 68c | 193$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 32c | 191$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd66…f308backed Yes | 11c | 188.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 188.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 163.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked No | 54c | 147.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 16c | 135$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b141backed Yes | 30c | 131.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 68c | 119$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 16c | 115.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b4…4dd0backed Yes | 55c | 115.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…ce41backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 30c | 101.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 98.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x091b…6396backed Yes | 31c | 95.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 31c | 95.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked No | 64c | 92.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 68c | 90.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1684backed Yes | 44c | 88.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 58c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 31c | 80.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…92f8backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 75.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 64.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 27c | 58.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 58.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 67c | 57.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…7ceebacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…7730backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…336abacked No | 76c | 46.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 69c | 44.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 63c | 43.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 56c | 38.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +9.7wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…a92cbacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 69c | 28.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 44c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…5234backed No | 61c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -81%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?this page
- Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Mira Nair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Susie Wiles be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.