TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes0c14,956$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…2a7fbacked Yes2c11,161$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c6,346$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.58140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28a…a062backed Yes0c6,173$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402d…3dc6backed Yes2c6,132$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed No78c3,123$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.214100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes5c2,930$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes11c2,765$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x386f…db83backed Yes1c2,602$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95f…26aebacked Yes2c2,336$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes11c2,239$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.69160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes2c2,218$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.313560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes4c2,152$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,003$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.171343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebf…db9fbacked Yes5c1,659$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,587$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.981227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No74c1,579$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.963650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,386$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.821,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890a…be9abacked Yes5c1,254$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes42c1,135$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.655042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x902c…9d51backed Yes5c1,108$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76d…9e18backed No79c1,095$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.58366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980a…eb16backed Yes3c1,037$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x790e…49f7backed Yes2c1,010$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbb…42d9backed No64c1,010$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc773…5e12backed Yes12c898.89$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7460…944ebacked Yes7c887.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c875.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91220%0 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41c6…76b2backed Yes4c868.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3058…03c4backed Yes2c850.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f2…8677backed Yes6c821.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes37c816.89$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Yes7c756.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes3c750.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.522128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes14c748.74$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7614528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes16c680$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes15c610$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.452213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes55c594.85$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.096540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes2c557.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0818725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes10c514.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb279…5d91backed Yes11c493.28$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745f…d476backed Yes3c491.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes7c468.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a8…a3c7backed Yes26c420$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No62c411$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes38c411$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes5c396.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x190c…d093backed Yes3c388.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes57c368$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.523935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed No77c366.5$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes39c345$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.241838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes44c344.39$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.534926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed No79c342.95$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No71c335.17$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.023164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes18c331$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes38c329$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No62c329$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes16c328$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb59f…4a98backed No32c317.89$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.31714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes28c300.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.363026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9db…d937backed No34c289.98$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+190.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd250…b0a4backed Yes16c286.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes59c265.82$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.721931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c5a…c318backed No20c264.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ff…f376backed Yes11c261.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes7c254.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.612832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes40c247.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x606c…92f8backed Yes29c242.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc118…9410backed Yes6c230.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes75c228.66$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.912025%5 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes14c203.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.79911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-84.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf12…26bcbacked Yes17c201.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes38c197.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.884247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No79c192$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.322245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed Yes61c191.05$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.27757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4881…a3e1backed Yes9c176.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c164.72$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d05…d278backed No41c164.11$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.114100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x281d…d282backed Yes15c161.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf8…2488backed Yes7c159.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes30c156$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes39c154.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…e858backed Yes16c153.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes43c150.37$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.362420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-62.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24cb…bae4backed No56c149.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0978…3137backed Yes44c148.03$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes26c146.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.41160%0 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked No62c140.76$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.821060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38cc…7ceebacked No54c140$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.15100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c139.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No27c128.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.061752.9%9 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x091b…6396backed Yes31c125.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c39…ca9dbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes24c121.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2d…4fa5backed No62c112.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.23988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2915032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes40c110$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.91040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked No57c107.92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes40c105.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.763231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.