Us Politics · resolved market

Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74634b7ee56491ede6435a342e83ff2600aa6308bca3d3ae7b4ecfc095a36baa

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x025b…1793backed Yes	1c	2,600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacdb…d0edbacked Yes	11c	1,642$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.75	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	9c	1,500$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.06	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	15c	1,250$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.84	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	137	14.6%20 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	5c	764.44$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	568.27$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf910…7467backed Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	11c	496.43$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.13	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes	13c	464$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes	13c	368$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.84	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8b…85dabacked Yes	17c	287.68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df5…d05ebacked Yes	13c	277.36$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	14c	247.14$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes	17c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No	56c	163.85$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.42	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	41c	139.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.82	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	122.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	14c	106.77$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes	13c	83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	47c	77$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.07	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked No	50c	76.65$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.11	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	20c	71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	64.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed Yes	40c	47.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ad…1684backed Yes	49c	39.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef3a…c4ffbacked No	53c	37.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked No	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+4.1wins	+0.29per pick	57cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event