TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x025b…1793

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
143
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Premier League at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT12632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 126 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.91
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.46
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$23.76
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$10.74
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$15.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$23.76
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+194%+$30.81
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.07
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$5.25
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.97
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.54
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+128.5%+$28.12
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.76
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.95
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.05
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.72
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+525%+$63
Showing 25 of 126 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+111.9%+$283.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$22.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.