Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78de94e45dccaae2bc60629eab79ea1573117b84264ed8e9c3db9f5b53131670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 384.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 21c | 243.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 80c | 235$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 9c | 232.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 13c | 210.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 198.11$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 8c | 196.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 192.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 8c | 190.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 179.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 172.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 161.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 154.73$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 135.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 132.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 11c | 129.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked Yes | 8c | 128.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 19c | 107.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 105.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 102.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 98.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 19c | 95.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 20c | 83.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 56.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 20c | 52.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 78c | 48.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…ec42backed No | 79c | 33.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 33.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a8…7ce7backed No | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 23.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…5308backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 78c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.