Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8223ed4b9c51f0822b5417d3f3b44e8247e8efe9dbbdd2d08a5e1ec064ed681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 349.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 335.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 34c | 288.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 63c | 234.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 229.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 212.02$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 24c | 187.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 64c | 186.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 183.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 70c | 163.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 19c | 153.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 20c | 151.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 139.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 36c | 136.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 68c | 117.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 107.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 25c | 99.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 90.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 29c | 90.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 66c | 88.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 87.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 85.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 83.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 51c | 82.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…f4d3backed No | 23c | 82.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…fde5backed Yes | 62c | 75.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 55c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 76c | 65.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 60.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 58.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 52.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 59c | 50.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 47c | 49.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 32c | 48.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 53c | 45.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 76c | 44.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 59c | 43.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 43.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 55c | 42.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…d545backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…911cbacked Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 53c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 37.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 35.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 46c | 35.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 42c | 34.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…932dbacked Yes | 46c | 33.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 55c | 32.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 50c | 29.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 62c | 29.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 58c | 28.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 28.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 74c | 28.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 56c | 27.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 76c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…c8ddbacked Yes | 72c | 23.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 48c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 54c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…587ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…14abbacked Yes | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 57c | 17.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…b9b2backed No | 59c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.