TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa26f…1071

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
483
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Weather, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 51 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT37644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 376 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.45
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.98
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$21.56
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.62
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$6.95
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$38.01
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.01
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.65
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.66
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.86
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.33
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+135.9%+$35.29
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.59
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.14
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.04
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.48
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$22.8
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.94
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.1
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+256.6%+$66.11
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.3
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$39.19
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.34
Showing 25 of 376 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 29, 2025, EDT8822.7%20 W · 68 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 88 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.45
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.12
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.46
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$311.2
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$10
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.35
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$360
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$31.5
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$276.73
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,066.51
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$1,587
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.84
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.5
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.89
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+252.8%+$1,253.78
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$589.55
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$582.99
Showing 25 of 88 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.95
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.06
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.74
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.6
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.93
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+85.9%+$133.47
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.