TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Celtics, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,409,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,556,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,409,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 693 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb75…0252backed Celtics42c385,282$161,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,090.66728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+77.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Celtics26c284,912$74,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,692.518333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Celtics43c144,245$61,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,382.6914052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Knicks57c117,408$66,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,491.812147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Knicks59c98,563$57,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,667.261782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Knicks66c95,552$63,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,062.0810357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Knicks57c79,776$45,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,303.6647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Knicks57c79,350$45,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,858.328341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics43c77,663$33,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,671.91,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Celtics44c76,000$33,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,4407335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks56c70,000$39,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,633.6296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Knicks58c60,100$35,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,03518146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Celtics3c55,000$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82722039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Knicks57c50,806$29,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,632.4414434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Celtics1c50,435$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.53636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Celtics31c49,986$15,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,495.6622457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Knicks56c46,140$25,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,190.1762351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Celtics44c42,655$18,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,7681546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Knicks57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,199.974025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Knicks58c37,133$21,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,595.95050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Knicks56c35,337$19,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,559.4346426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Celtics43c35,018$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,2005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea27…8a0bbacked Celtics0c30,025$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7510656.6%60 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Celtics3c30,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Celtics3c28,808$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.0510926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Celtics43c27,272$11,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,671.728241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Knicks56c24,755$13,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,892.220047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa78d…e8cbbacked Celtics1c21,313$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.512920.7%6 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Celtics44c19,048$8,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,372.821338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Knicks57c18,300$10,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,79423135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Celtics43c18,046$7,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,719.871,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Knicks57c15,759$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,759.1813636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Knicks77c15,647$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.4931453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Knicks67c15,217$10,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,041.744062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Knicks59c14,248$8,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,794.171,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Knicks57c13,552$7,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,833.2619149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d8…ab05backed Knicks58c13,090$7,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,497.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6b…68eebacked Celtics43c12,635$5,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,433.051735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Knicks57c12,500$7,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,374.983644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34b…454bbacked Celtics43c12,329$5,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,301.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Knicks57c11,919$6,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,124.961,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93dc…896fbacked Celtics1c11,650$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.25129.4%15 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+57.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks57c10,137$5,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.151,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Knicks57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3007447.3%35 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Celtics0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Celtics43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3001844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks56c9,733$5,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,282.5961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks74c9,580$7,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,532.861,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Knicks57c9,025$5,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,874.4936057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Knicks57c9,000$5,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,878.6716537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Knicks58c9,000$5,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,742.54143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Knicks57c8,762$4,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.784252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Celtics44c8,674$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.4120248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8b…4f21backed Celtics0c8,162$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0612841.4%53 W · 75 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Knicks57c8,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4405843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks57c7,955$4,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.6529957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a2…3b96backed Knicks58c7,764$4,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,260.792040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Celtics39c7,680$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Celtics0c7,524$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.544573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Knicks57c7,021$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,018.8736748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Celtics44c6,941$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05447542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Knicks67c6,683$4,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.0449849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Knicks71c6,540$4,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.835,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Knicks75c6,501$4,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.8270640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Knicks61c6,468$3,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.988053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Celtics43c6,174$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.984452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Knicks58c6,034$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.487445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Knicks79c5,729$4,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.721,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks57c5,530$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.732,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Celtics32c5,390$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71066744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c2…10cebacked Knicks65c5,379$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.58520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Knicks57c5,288$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.8917044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Celtics44c5,216$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.0335235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Celtics42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Knicks56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20022750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Celtics43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15016844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Celtics43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1508053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Celtics44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20030443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Celtics43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.9859653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Celtics43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.814854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Celtics43c4,605$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.179558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Celtics44c4,546$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.091,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks74c4,406$3,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.1476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Knicks58c4,402$2,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.647261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Knicks58c4,200$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.9936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0537…13b6backed Celtics44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7602462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks80c3,956$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.697929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x394a…d309backed Knicks56c3,765$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea87…d01fbacked Knicks56c3,739$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.35875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c5c…151ebacked Knicks56c3,561$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec0…08ecbacked Celtics43c3,500$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Knicks58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.285362.3%33 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Celtics1c3,435$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.877502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8f…3857backed Celtics9c3,296$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee1f…9cedbacked Celtics43c3,081$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.8112229.5%36 W · 86 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Celtics9c3,031$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4117335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x008b…439bbacked Celtics45c3,026$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.284537.8%17 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73da…bde0backed Celtics44c3,014$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f3…2c1abacked Celtics43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Knicks57c2,992$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.6411753%62 W · 55 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.