NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2248d10eda415bddacda85eef7ee0a99ccebdb7266a0fcc23361bac9af398f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Celtics | 48c | 39,000$18,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,909.99 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks | 52c | 31,955$16,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,447.63 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks | 50c | 8,178$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,126.13 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…6deebacked Knicks | 51c | 7,954$4,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,898.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Celtics | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Celtics | 51c | 4,807$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475.05 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Celtics | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Knicks | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Knicks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Knicks | 50c | 818.11$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.22 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Celtics | 3c | 721.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Knicks | 49c | 403.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 48c | 372.92$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.92 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Knicks | 50c | 327$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Knicks | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Celtics | 28c | 295$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Knicks | 75c | 228$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Knicks | 53c | 201.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Celtics | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Knicks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Knicks | 50c | 162$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…4b7ebacked Knicks | 51c | 101.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Celtics | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Knicks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…5772backed Knicks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Celtics | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…df35backed Knicks | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…eb97backed Celtics | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…d1c4backed Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- Celtics vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Over 205.5Under won
- Over 208.5Under won
- Over 209.5Under won
- Over 210.5Under won
- Over 211.5Under won
- Over 212.5Under won
- Over 213.5Under won
- Over 215.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.