TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcc80…2bc1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
576
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT8615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$106.26
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$27
Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$165
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$381
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$225
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63.12
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.08
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+426.3%+$243
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$137.02
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$69.17
Will 61 or more U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will exactly 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+675.2%+$402.6
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.67
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.54
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT8615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.2
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$382
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$182.08
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+325.5%+$765
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+566.7%+$118.59
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.95
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$181
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$116.35
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$154.49
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$405
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$317.5
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.5
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$136
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177.47
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93.75
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT8123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 81 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.75
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.12
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.26
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$215
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.5
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,328.6%+$582.79
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.61
Starmer out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$74.65
Will Jeannette Jara come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$57
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$136
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.6
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$73
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+389.6%+$1,591.5
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$150
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.61
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,140.13
Showing 25 of 81 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT6524.6%16 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.7
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.7
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.53
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.5
Cardinals vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Braves vs. Philliesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Mariners vs. Astrosbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Cubs vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.5
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgersbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Rangers vs. Yankeesbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$63
Royals vs. Giantsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$77
Rangers vs. Yankeesbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.5
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgersbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT+150%+$90
Reds vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Tigers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Yankees vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Rays vs. Blue Jaysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$73.75
Pirates vs. Metsbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.94
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Orioles vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
Reds vs. Astrosbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.04
Cardinals vs. Nationalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$71.25
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT4932.7%16 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 172.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5)backed Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$240
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 164.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)backed St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: UCLA Bruins (-5.5)backed UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$240
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5)backed Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,500
March Madness: Team from the ACC to win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$400.25
Houston vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$813.5
Florida vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$521Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$521.16
Michigan State vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$390
Will Houston make the 2025 Final Four?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Tennessee vs. Houstonbacked Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Tennessee make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Duke win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$96
Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Texas Tech vs. Floridabacked Texas Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Purdue vs. Houstonbacked Purdue · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$208
Michigan vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+100%+$200
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT4015%6 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.04
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.08
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+133%+$770.5
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.01
Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$217
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$102.11
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$60.21
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15.49
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+566.7%+$425
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$222.9
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$61.4
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$210
Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$34.3
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+53.8%+$93.27
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.95
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+165.6%+$28.68
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.9
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.77
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+525%+$210
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.79
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$77.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$341.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$73
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$33
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$79.5
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.31
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+163.2%+$124
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+395.9%+$479
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+44.7%+$30.9
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$382
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.05
Ireland, Norway, or Spain accepts Gazan refugees in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$41.64
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$143.68
Assad public appearance before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22.51
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.93
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+528.2%+$120.89
Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$37.43
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $115m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.75
Will "Lilo & Stitch" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.61
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+400%+$239.24
Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.56
Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.43
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.9
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 8+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25.81
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.59
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$17.01
Will 'Nosferatu' win an Oscar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.26
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will "Magic Candies" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$21.46
Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$18.02
Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$82.62
Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$39.35
Will another movie gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$26.41
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+1,566.7%+$470
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT2725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+203%+$100.5
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.39
NBA Finals G1: Thunder win and SGA scores 34+ points? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+203%+$66.98
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
NBA Finals G1: Will SGA score 34+ points against the Pacers?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.22
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.21
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Pacers vs Knicks: O/U 224.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+300%+$150
Nuggets vs Thunder: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+300%+$36.75
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+300%+$74.99
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Over 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Favorite · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+300%+$150
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)backed Favorite · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$256.5
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$198
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-88.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.1
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.72
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.5
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$26.21
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$165
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+143.9%+$236
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$56
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$260.5
Will Trump remove Jerome Powell in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 22 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-85.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.85
Will Monterrey win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.11
Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+71.5%+$14.61
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Will Inter win on 2025-04-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.4
Will Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 12 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+145.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2025 January hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$116.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy released from custody before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $TRUMP memecoin creator sell by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$42.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.