AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15f25bf173673c1e33e45106a0f04cacf9e1fd2b814ccfbed5c815ed247d67f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 18c | 3,997$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…5e6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 14c | 2,592$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.51 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 3c | 2,358$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…6891backed Yes | 21c | 1,867$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 14c | 894.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…533fbacked Yes | 5c | 812.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 2c | 806.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 17c | 800$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked Yes | 14c | 714.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 15c | 709.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…e40abacked Yes | 2c | 640.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 14c | 611.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…ee7bbacked Yes | 15c | 580$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc565…6662backed Yes | 17c | 575.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 572.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac19…dc7cbacked Yes | 3c | 563.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…f499backed Yes | 4c | 548.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…5681backed Yes | 13c | 481.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1127…8d70backed Yes | 20c | 469.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 435.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…2f62backed Yes | 16c | 429.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 409.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…5069backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 4c | 360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 357.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…b899backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 15c | 312.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…f3a5backed Yes | 17c | 311.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…cec5backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…39e6backed Yes | 18c | 281.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes | 14c | 240.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked Yes | 16c | 216.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 17c | 190.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…a85ebacked Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…ca22backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…02e7backed Yes | 17c | 118.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…4491backed Yes | 19c | 105.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…5870backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7810backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…646ebacked Yes | 18c | 85.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 18c | 79.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…b036backed Yes | 17c | 78.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e9…17e7backed Yes | 17c | 73.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 77c | 70.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…3e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…df55backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ad…db8dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…9d08backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…7e99backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.