Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b26445c4c410b7a7eb1e6cdd79741e1ec309b9c8658534a4a5f3a6a6c17263b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.47 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 1,901$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.27 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 26c | 1,690$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.98 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 8c | 1,362$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 4c | 1,232$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,110$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 19c | 1,021$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.94 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 25c | 985.87$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 23c | 826.15$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 26c | 806.49$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.98 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 6c | 700.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 23c | 666.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 15c | 655$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 18c | 644$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…d224backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…2a75backed Yes | 6c | 468.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 14c | 356.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 16c | 350.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 340$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 316.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 14c | 314$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 303.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 297.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 263$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…86c7backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 245.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 212.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 211.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 26c | 210$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 10c | 206.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 20c | 201$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 201$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -6.3wins | -0.37per pick | 73cpaid | -53%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 71c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes | 17c | 183.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 11c | 182.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 64c | 177.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 80c | 156.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 31c | 154.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…3761backed Yes | 14c | 146.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 145.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 10c | 144.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 72c | 115.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 19c | 107.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed Yes | 25c | 88.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 17c | 85.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e4…4928backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…24dabacked No | 69c | 72.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…59b2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…bed2backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 71c | 32.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…0ee9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?this page
- Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Pope Leo in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.