Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e269d6cc6e433a32de9e5c946a35c560fc1c563e7f734e9b48adb990d143fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 2,551$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.09 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 1,063$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 5c | 997$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 408.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…36e9backed Yes | 9c | 185.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…2d20backed Yes | 8c | 176$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 9c | 164.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 127.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in August?this page
- Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Pope Leo in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?Yes won
- Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?No won
- Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.