TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x897a…b17e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
145
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 33.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT3339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$77.52
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$304.99
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$390
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$655
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,928Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$1,225.49
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$755
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$789Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$210.59
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$760
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$212.49
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$511.88
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$78.27
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$191.67
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$466.06
Will Adam Scott (Severance) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+136.4%+$94.87
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,883Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+77.7%+$3,016.06
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$98.09
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,561Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$1,560.87
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+35.1%+$189.54
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.19
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.96
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $55M?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$221.6
Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $51–55M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.3
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$468
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$115
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,180
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$595Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+144.6%+$860.37
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.87
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.2
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$33.56
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$8,225Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$8,224.95
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.4%+$86
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+47.9%+$200.08
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$174.14
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$415.58
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$127.19
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$116
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$123.62
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$58
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$108.98
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$82
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$408
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$798Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$798
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$72.22
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,584Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$958
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$400
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-6.3wins-0.37per pick73cpaid-53%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$119.64
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$44
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.9%+$76.97
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$44
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$136
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$438
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$364.73
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$181.95
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$44
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$243.14
Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.66
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$464
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$309
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,428
All 17 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$340
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+37%+$135
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$212
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$302.48
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$336
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$19
Will Bitcoin reach $117K August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will Bitcoin reach $115K August 25–31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Solana dip to $120 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$252
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$66.8
Will Ethereum dip to $2300 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,098Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+67.1%+$737.01
Will Solana dip to $140 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+31.9%+$24.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$857Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$857
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$160
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$168.25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$195
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$130
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$220
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$433.05
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$804Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$396
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$132
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$44
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+30.1%+$90.94
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$670.2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,118Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$582
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$124
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$282
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$894Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.5%+$227.58
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,016Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.6%+$484.03
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,006Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+91%+$1,826.17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$954Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+28%+$266.76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,829Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+34.6%+$978.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+170.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+40.8%+$145
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+300%+$900
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+400%+$827.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 11, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+52.7%+$138
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arkansas vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$67.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$336
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 US Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 BMW Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$132
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.