Movies · resolved market
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a0fbcc97db0553c83969cba8b9bab318d4abe50c048fc793803031c48ae3cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b0…2784backed No | 1c | 3,257$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 76c | 2,254$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.09 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…43a7backed No | 3c | 1,800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 10c | 1,393$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 2c | 1,023$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 1c | 814.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…5786backed No | 7c | 699.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…6017backed No | 3c | 679.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 16c | 610.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 535.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 29c | 463.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…a983backed No | 36c | 425.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 38c | 397.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed No | 31c | 392.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…c3d8backed No | 24c | 377.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 360.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 57c | 349.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 30c | 348.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 5c | 300.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 11c | 291.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 288.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 37c | 280.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 5c | 274$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…7622backed No | 7c | 265.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 66c | 228$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked No | 43c | 226.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 46c | 209.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…cb42backed No | 44c | 198.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 190.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…c1e3backed No | 39c | 153.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…b0d0backed No | 67c | 148.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed No | 19c | 145.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed No | 35c | 116.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 100.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 17c | 98.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 88.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…0da2backed Yes | 62c | 77.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed No | 25c | 74.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 36c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…48e4backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 72c | 30.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…f801backed Yes | 67c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 67c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…89c0backed Yes | 63c | 25.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf719…f090backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a0…265abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?this page
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m?No won
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m?No won
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 35m?No won
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.