TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x65a3…c1e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 57 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT1782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kingston 2: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Andrew Fentybacked Andrew Fenty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$6.75
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Alex de Minaurbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$8.21
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfilsbacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.61
The Memphis Classic: Kristina Liutova vs Maya Jointbacked Maya Joint · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.51
Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs James Duckworthbacked Cameron Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$9.23
Vancouver: Ariana Arseneault vs Annabelle Xubacked Ariana Arseneault · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$13.31
The Memphis Classic: Anastasia Zakharova vs Linda Fruhvirtovabacked Anastasia Zakharova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$5.76
Livesport Prague Open: Daria Snigur vs Lilli Taggerbacked Daria Snigur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.59
Bloomfield Hills: Alex Michelsen vs Lloyd Harrisbacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.77
ITF Torino: Antonia Stoyanov vs Beatrice Riccibacked Antonia Stoyanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.11
Lincoln: Matthew Forbes vs Bernard Tomicbacked Bernard Tomic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.2
Granby: Keegan Rice vs Arthur Geabacked Arthur Gea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.99
Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Zdenek Kolarbacked Juan Manuel Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.56
Istanbul 2: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tatiana Prozorovabacked Tatiana Prozorova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.23
Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Daniel Milavskybacked Alexis Galarneau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.52
Braunschweig: Hugo Gaston vs Marvin Moellerbacked Hugo Gaston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.58
All 17 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stagebacked ex-RUSTEC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stagebacked GenOne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$14.6
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14.18
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs SAW Youngsters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked Butterfly · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.33
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs ODDIK (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Playoffsbacked Bounty Hunters Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.01
Counter-Strike: NIP vs ECHO (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group Dbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$6.44
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FOKUS (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Bbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$13.01
Counter-Strike: Patins da Ferrari vs Grêmio Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stagebacked Patins da Ferrari · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$17.9
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stagebacked ALKA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$9.14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$9.75
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked INTZ e-Sports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.37
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked TLN Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$2.91
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.02
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifierbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
LoL: NRG Esports vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stagebacked NRG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.55
LoL: Galions vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Galions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$6.4
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.06
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Valorant — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda win on 2026-07-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.79
Will FC Santa Coloma win on 2026-07-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$86.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-07-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.