Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c12111806ed86aa739c21d09e325e9e10190235e7c79d138fdd0ee463a685f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 47c | 3,413$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.57 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 44c | 1,606$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.07 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 36c | 1,605$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.11 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 67c | 1,511$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.78 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 46c | 1,292$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.13 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Up | 55c | 622.27$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 31c | 506$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…5090backed Up | 65c | 450$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Down | 26c | 371$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 54c | 307.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x677a…fd6cbacked Up | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 32c | 251$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Up | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…9ffcbacked Down | 17c | 143.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 13c | 127.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 49c | 122.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…e446backed Up | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 55c | 108.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Up | 48c | 105.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Up | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 28c | 93.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…c1e3backed Down | 56c | 91.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 72c | 74.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…5cb8backed Down | 41c | 74.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…7152backed Down | 57c | 56.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…83a5backed Down | 53c | 53.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 54c | 51.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Down | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Down | 48c | 46.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Down | 50c | 43.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Up | 71c | 42.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Up | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…b42cbacked Up | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.