TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2c0e…524c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT6013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.5
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.15
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$565.58
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.31
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.33
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+124.8%+$556.73
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+164.2%+$136.51
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.21
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.52
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.28
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+374.7%+$132.64
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.4
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.79
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.95
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.5
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.4
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$232
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.42
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.23
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.89
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.55
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.1
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.6
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.1
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.5
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.8
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$118
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$53.96
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$102
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+166.7%+$325
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+58.7%+$74
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+423.3%+$2,498.66
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+509.7%+$1,876.01
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$54.47
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 20?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.61
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 19?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+203%+$33.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 7?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of April 27 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+227.9%+$278
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 27?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.75
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 27?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.75
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 22?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+103.7%+$19.61
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 21?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$11.44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$21.47
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$52
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+85.5%+$25.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$37.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.