Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66197371f12fb59479737bd087b6f4e59db3a3d68abc90ad623473fc5795ed16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 14c | 6,584$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,690.12 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 16c | 1,763$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.54 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Up | 52c | 1,479$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.94 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 63c | 1,188$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.94 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 73c | 1,182$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.03 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Down | 14c | 1,112$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e65…694fbacked Up | 48c | 927.03$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…0cf6backed Up | 77c | 779.09$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 61c | 767.39$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.29 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Up | 73c | 495.18$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…d057backed Down | 9c | 476.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,040%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…2ab0backed Up | 53c | 436.64$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 46c | 401.43$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.91 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Down | 9c | 361.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.21 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Down | 8c | 345$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Down | 18c | 283.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Down | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Up | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Up | 31c | 179.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Down | 44c | 167.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…3aaebacked Down | 35c | 160.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 79c | 157.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 8c | 144.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Up | 61c | 109.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Up | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Down | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Down | 33c | 99.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Up | 45c | 75.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…6094backed Down | 15c | 67.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff14…c6cabacked Down | 38c | 65.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked Up | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Up | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…33d4backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Down | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Down | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…8fe3backed Up | 76c | 40.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…f961backed Up | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37e…d797backed Up | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6b54backed Down | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Up | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +72%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.