TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdac5…ae24

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
238
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Stocks at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT19855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 198 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 17 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$275.65
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$15.6
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+61.8%+$103.9
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of July 27 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$72.63
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$160
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on July 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$87
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of July 20 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.81
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$750.5
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$832.32
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$96
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$268.33
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+83.8%+$229.32
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$362.85
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,665Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$1,230.98
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.23
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.17
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$327.72
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 25?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+113.4%+$571.35
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+67%+$140.4
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$46.23
Showing 25 of 198 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$1,892
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,292
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.64
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.19
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$142.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.96
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+87.3%+$49.77
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$35.1
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$22.2
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$18.9
All 12 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $170?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.68
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.8
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $165 on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.41
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.16
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$44.63
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $90?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+39.3%+$82.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+88.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$979.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$26.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.